The New Justin Herbert Offense Looks Nothing Like the Old One

So what's up with the Chargers offense?

Two games are not enough to define an offense. I realize we are working on a small sample size, but hey, what else are we supposed to do after Week 2? Just not talk about it.

Through two weeks of the 2026 season, Justin Herbert has attempted 54 passes. The Chargers are 0-2, have scored 14 points in each game, and Herbert has completed just 59.3% of his passes with two touchdowns and three interceptions.

I personally was high on McDaniel coming in and charging up this offense with a ton of quality weapons to work with. These first two weeks have been underwhelming to say the least. So what's up? I'm not in the huddle, the locker room, or the front office, but I can at least look at the stats and conjecture what may be different.

Only 53.7% have been thrown within 10 yards of the line of scrimmage.

That is a dramatically different distribution from the offense Herbert operated during his 5,000-yard season in 2021. It is also dramatically different from the offense Mike McDaniel constructed around Tua Tagovailoa during Miami's explosive 2023 season.

And perhaps most interestingly, it is more aggressive than several of the best quarterback seasons of the past five years.

Herbert Isn't Playing Like 2021 Herbert

Duh. Obviously. But since Herbert's 2021 season remains the statistical high point of his career, it's worth seeing what was different. He threw for 5,014 yards and 38 touchdowns, averaged 7.5 yards per attempt and made the Pro Bowl.

But that offense didn't require Herbert to constantly push the football downfield. Our passing-profile data shows a remarkably different distribution.

The big number that sticks out to me is the ≤10 air-yard rate. Nearly 20 percentage points lower than his best season.

So where did the yards come from? YAC. They kept the sticks moving by using their weapons, getting the ball into their hands and letting them work in space. Herbert's 2021 offense produced 5.4 yards after catch per reception. Austin Ekeler was a major part of that ecosystem, catching 70 passes for 647 yards.

Through two weeks in 2026, the Chargers are generating just 3.8 YAC per reception.

This Doesn't Look Like McDaniel's Best Miami Offense Either

That might make sense if this were simply Mike McDaniel installing the offense that made Miami one of football's most explosive attacks.

Except it doesn't look much like that offense either.

Tua Tagovailoa led the NFL with 4,624 passing yards in 2023, completing 69.3% of his passes while averaging 8.3 yards per attempt. But Miami didn't produce those numbers by repeatedly asking Tua to live beyond 10 yards.

Not as stark of a difference as 2021 Herbert, but a 13.3-point difference in the ≤10-yard rate. And again, the YAC difference. The 2023 Dolphins averaged 5.7 YAC per reception, with an offense built around players capable of turning completed passes into additional yardage. Tyreek Hill led the team with 1,799 receiving yards, while Jaylen Waddle added 1,014.

My first thought was, this is what McDaniel wants: to push the ball downfield. This data makes me think otherwise. His success has also been working in the 0–10 range and giving guys opportunities to work with the ball in their hands.

LAC Pass Catchers

It's not for lack of ability either. These guys can run with the ball in their hands. Hampton, McConkey, QJ and Gadsden all have career YAC production that suggests there should be yards available after the catch.

*Career figures through the end of the 2025 regular season, providing a pre-McDaniel baseline.

Even Great Passing Seasons Haven't Looked Like This

We can widen the comparison beyond Herbert and Tua.

Tom Brady threw for 5,316 yards and 43 touchdowns in 2021. Patrick Mahomes threw for 5,250 yards and 41 touchdowns during his 2022 MVP season.

Neither approached Herbert's current rate of attempts traveling 10+ yards.

Two weeks isn't a verdict. It is something worth watching.

I know, I get it: small sample size. They were playing from behind in their games. It's going to level out toward historic norms as the season goes on and they find their legs.

But it's Week 2, and we have to write about something.

I personally think they will turn it around and it will start clicking. Just some interesting thoughts after a couple weeks of play.

EdgeLine is a data-driven fantasy football and NFL analytics site built to look beyond the box score. Follow @EdgeLineFF for more data-driven NFL analysis, fantasy insights, and weekly research throughout the 2026 season.