Can Drew Lock Keep JSN Elite?
Jaxon Smith-Njigba didn't merely survive Seattle's unexpected quarterback change. He went 8-for-122 with a touchdown. We went back through JSN's 2025 target profile and Drew Lock's career to see whether the production can survive if Sam Darnold misses time.
Initial X-rays and a CT scan on Sam Darnold's injured right hip showed no fracture, an encouraging early result. Seattle is still doing additional testing, including an MRI, to determine whether there is soft-tissue damage and whether Darnold could miss time. This analysis is therefore conditional: Drew Lock has not been declared Seattle's long-term starter.
Lock is a downgrade for the Seattle offense. The data says he may be a much smaller downgrade for JSN.
Lock's career efficiency trails Darnold's, but he has not been a checkdown-only passer. He pushes the ball downfield, has previously supported concentrated WR1 volume, and Seattle showed another path in Week 1: shorten JSN's targets, increase the target share and let him create after the catch.
The production stayed. The way JSN got there changed.
JSN's 2025 profile was already extreme: roughly 9.4 targets, 99.6 receiving yards and 20.4 PPR points per game across the regular season and postseason in our sample. In the 2026 opener, he immediately beat all three marks with 11 targets, 122 yards and 26.2 PPR points.
But the route to those fantasy points looked different. His average depth of target fell from 11.0 yards in 2025 to 6.9 in Week 1. His air yards dropped from 104.8 per game to 76. Yet his YAC jumped from 29.8 to 62.
| Metric | 2025 Avg. | 2026 Week 1 | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| Targets | 9.4 | 11.0 | +1.6 |
| Target share | 35.5% | 45.8% | +10.3 pp |
| Receiving yards | 99.6 | 122.0 | +22.4 |
| PPR points | 20.4 | 26.2 | +5.8 |
| Air yards | 104.8 | 76.0 | -28.8 |
| Air-yard share | 47.3% | 49.4% | +2.1 pp |
| aDOT | 11.0 | 6.9 | -4.1 |
| Deep targets | 1.4 | 1.0 | -0.4 |
| YAC | 29.8 | 62.0 | +32.2 |
| YAC / reception | 4.6 | 7.8 | +3.2 |
Compared with his 2025 average, JSN's air yards were down about 27% and his aDOT fell about 37%. His YAC increased about 108% and his PPR production increased about 29%. Seattle did not need Lock to reproduce Darnold's exact passing profile for JSN to produce a WR1-level result.
What did his big games actually look like?
The complete 2025 game log makes the relationship easier to see. This table includes Seattle's postseason games because the goal is not to calculate a regular-season award total; it is to study the environments in which JSN produced.
| Game | Opp. | Tgt | Tgt Share | Rec | Yds | TD | PPR | Air Yds | Air-Yd Share | aDOT | Deep Tgt | YAC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| REG W1 | SF | 13 | 59.1% | 9 | 124 | 0 | 21.4 | 178 | 90.4% | 13.7 | 3 | 29 |
| REG W2 | PIT | 10 | 33.3% | 8 | 103 | 0 | 18.3 | 103 | 38.9% | 10.3 | 2 | 29 |
| REG W3 | NO | 6 | 30.0% | 5 | 96 | 1 | 20.6 | 87 | 51.2% | 14.5 | 2 | 21 |
| REG W4 | ARI | 5 | 20.8% | 4 | 79 | 0 | 11.9 | 78 | 32.9% | 15.6 | 1 | 8 |
| REG W5 | TB | 9 | 26.5% | 8 | 132 | 1 | 27.2 | 106 | 38.5% | 11.8 | 1 | 36 |
| REG W6 | JAX | 13 | 54.2% | 8 | 162 | 1 | 30.2 | 176 | 48.8% | 13.5 | 4 | 35 |
| REG W7 | HOU | 14 | 48.3% | 8 | 123 | 1 | 26.3 | 167 | 59.6% | 11.9 | 3 | 30 |
| REG W9 | WAS | 9 | 37.5% | 8 | 129 | 0 | 20.9 | 94 | 45.4% | 10.4 | 0 | 47 |
| REG W10 | ARI | 6 | 50.0% | 5 | 93 | 1 | 20.3 | 102 | 79.7% | 17.0 | 2 | 12 |
| REG W11 | LA | 12 | 28.6% | 9 | 105 | 0 | 19.5 | 117 | 34.2% | 9.8 | 2 | 29 |
| REG W12 | TEN | 10 | 40.0% | 8 | 167 | 2 | 36.7 | 138 | 56.3% | 13.8 | 2 | 56 |
| REG W13 | MIN | 4 | 17.4% | 2 | 23 | 0 | 4.3 | 7 | 7.5% | 1.8 | 0 | 23 |
| REG W14 | ATL | 10 | 33.3% | 7 | 92 | 2 | 28.2 | 106 | 41.6% | 10.6 | 1 | 34 |
| REG W15 | IND | 9 | 27.3% | 7 | 113 | 0 | 18.3 | 67 | 27.8% | 7.4 | 0 | 65 |
| REG W16 | LA | 13 | 39.4% | 8 | 96 | 1 | 23.6 | 112 | 55.4% | 8.6 | 0 | 36 |
| REG W17 | CAR | 12 | 46.2% | 9 | 72 | 0 | 16.2 | 93 | 66.0% | 7.8 | 0 | 15 |
| REG W18 | SF | 8 | 30.8% | 6 | 84 | 0 | 14.4 | 102 | 81.0% | 12.8 | 1 | 23 |
| POST W20 | SF | 4 | 25.0% | 3 | 19 | 1 | 10.9 | 28 | 18.2% | 7.0 | 1 | 13 |
| POST W21 | LA | 12 | 35.3% | 10 | 153 | 1 | 31.3 | 128 | 43.2% | 10.7 | 1 | 45 |
| POST W22 | NE | 10 | 27.8% | 4 | 27 | 0 | 6.7 | 106 | 29.3% | 10.6 | 2 | 10 |
| 2026 W1 | NE | 11 | 45.8% | 8 | 122 | 1 | 26.2 | 76 | 49.4% | 6.9 | 1 | 62 |
REG = regular season; POST = postseason. PPR is receiving PPR scoring only: one point per reception, 0.1 per receiving yard and six points per receiving touchdown.
Air yards mattered — but they were not the whole story.
Across JSN's 20-game 2025 sample, air yards had the strongest linear relationship with his PPR scoring of the usage variables we tested. That matters because it pushes back against the idea that JSN is simply a short-area volume receiver. His biggest fantasy games were often accompanied by significant downfield opportunity.
But YAC was nearly as important. That gives JSN two distinct ways to create ceiling: win deeper downfield, or command enough touches to create explosive yardage after the catch.
| Metric | Pearson vs. PPR | Spearman vs. PPR |
|---|---|---|
| Air Yards | 0.689 | 0.731 |
| Yac | 0.625 | 0.706 |
| Targets | 0.568 | 0.571 |
| Target Share | 0.519 | 0.591 |
| Epa Per Target | 0.457 | 0.394 |
| Adot | 0.432 | 0.391 |
| Qb Adot | 0.429 | 0.269 |
| Qb Yards Per Attempt | 0.427 | 0.515 |
| Air Yard Share | 0.370 | 0.429 |
| Deep Targets | 0.344 | 0.314 |
Lock's issue has not been willingness to throw deep. It has been efficiency.
This is the most important stylistic distinction. In our play-by-play sample, Darnold's 2025 aDOT was 8.03. Lock's career mark is 8.02 — almost identical. Lock has actually thrown 20-plus air-yard attempts at a higher rate in the sample.
Where the separation appears is in the quality of the offense: Darnold produced better yards per attempt, EPA per dropback and success rate. So the concern for JSN is not that Lock refuses to challenge defenses vertically. It is whether those targets will be delivered with enough consistency.
| PBP Passing Metric | Darnold 2025 | Lock Career | Lock 2026 W1 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Completion % | 62.9% | 56.6% | 69.6% |
| Yards / attempt | 7.83 | 6.24 | 8.13 |
| aDOT | 8.03 | 8.02 | 6.32 |
| Deep-attempt rate | 10.8% | 13.0% | 8.7% |
| TD rate | 5.0% | 3.3% | 4.3% |
| INT rate | 2.3% | 2.7% | 0.0% |
| Sack rate | 5.2% | 4.7% | 4.2% |
| EPA / dropback | 0.145 | -0.077 | 0.280 |
| Success rate | 51.4% | 40.3% | 47.8% |
Lock's career 13.0% deep-attempt rate is actually above Darnold's 10.8% rate from 2025. That does not make Lock the better quarterback. It does mean a Lock-led offense does not automatically eliminate the downfield opportunities that were strongly associated with JSN's biggest fantasy games.
There is a recent example — and it looks a lot like the situation fantasy managers care about.
Across the 28 Drew Lock starts inferred from play-by-play, his top target averaged only about 13.9 PPR points per game. Taken alone, that is not especially reassuring.
But Lock has not always played with a receiver capable of commanding JSN-level volume. The more relevant samples are the games in which one receiver clearly dominated his targets. The strongest recent example is Malik Nabers with the 2024 Giants.
| Lock's Top Target | Games | Tgt/G | Tgt Share | Rec/G | Yds/G | PPR/G |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Malik Nabers | 4 | 11.5 | 34.6% | 6.75 | 97.2 | 19.48 |
| Jerry Jeudy | 5 | 11.0 | 27.4% | 5.20 | 91.4 | 16.74 |
| Tim Patrick | 3 | 8.7 | 34.5% | 5.00 | 105.0 | 15.50 |
| Courtland Sutton | 7 | 6.7 | 27.7% | 3.86 | 47.6 | 10.33 |
| All Lock top targets | 28 | 8.9 | 28.9% | 5.18 | 70.1 | 13.90 |
Malik Nabers with Drew Lock in 2024
| Game | Opp. | Tgt | Rec | Yds | TD | PPR | Air Yds | aDOT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 W13 | DAL | 13 | 8 | 69 | 0 | 14.9 | 69 | 5.3 |
| 2024 W14 | NO | 11 | 5 | 81 | 0 | 13.1 | 120 | 12.0 |
| 2024 W16 | ATL | 14 | 7 | 68 | 0 | 13.8 | 113 | 8.1 |
| 2024 W17 | IND | 8 | 7 | 171 | 2 | 36.1 | 74 | 9.2 |
In the four Lock starts where Nabers was the Giants' leading target, Nabers averaged roughly 11.5 targets, 97.3 receiving yards and 19.5 PPR points. The ceiling was there too: a 7-catch, 171-yard, two-touchdown performance against Indianapolis.
That does not prove Lock will sustain JSN at his 2025 level. Four games are four games. But it is meaningful evidence against the stronger claim that a Drew Lock offense simply cannot support an elite fantasy receiver.
If Darnold misses time, don't treat JSN like a normal backup-QB downgrade.
The quarterback downgrade is real. Lock's career passing efficiency is substantially below what Darnold gave Seattle in 2025, and a longer Lock sample could eventually reduce touchdown opportunities and offensive volume.
But JSN has several forms of insulation that matter for fantasy. He commanded nearly half of Seattle's targets in Week 1. His 2025 ceiling was strongly tied to air-yard volume, and Lock has historically been willing to push the ball downfield. Lock has also already shown that he can funnel double-digit targets to an elite receiver, most recently with Nabers.
And if Seattle decides to protect Lock with shorter throws, Week 1 showed that JSN has another way to win: volume plus yards after the catch.
How we tested it.
EdgeLine used nflverse play-by-play data from 2019 through Week 1 of the 2026 season. JSN's 2025 analysis includes both regular-season and postseason games. Receiving PPR was calculated as receptions + 0.1 points per receiving yard + six points per receiving touchdown.
Correlation table: Pearson correlation measures linear association with JSN's receiving PPR points; Spearman measures rank association. The 20-game sample is descriptive and should not be treated as proof of causation.
QB style: Darnold's 2025 passing profile is compared with Lock's nflverse play-by-play sample from 2019 through Week 1 2026. Deep attempts are passes traveling at least 20 air yards.
Lock starts: starts were inferred from play-by-play by identifying games in which Lock was his team's first named passer. The analysis found 28 inferred starts; any precise published career-start claim should be cross-checked against official game logs.
Top target: for each Lock start, the receiver with the most targets from Lock was selected, with ties broken by receiving yards and then PPR production.
Injury context: Darnold's status was unresolved at publication. Initial imaging showed no fracture, with additional testing pending.
Data: nflverse play-by-play. Injury status: Seattle Seahawks / NFL reporting current as of Sept. 10, 2026.
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