Dalton Kincaid’s Historic Start
Dalton Kincaid has opened 2026 with 12 receptions for 225 yards and a touchdown. We went back through every season since 2015 to find tight ends with similar two-game starts — and see where they finished the fantasy season.
Every qualifying tight end since 2015 finished TE5 or better.
Seven roster-verified tight ends entered Week 3 with at least 10 receptions and 175 receiving yards. Their final PPR finishes were TE1, TE1, TE2, TE3, TE3, TE5 and TE5. Kincaid’s 225 yards would be the second-highest two-game total in that group.
Kincaid isn’t barely clearing the threshold.
Through Buffalo’s first two games, Kincaid has 12 receptions, 225 receiving yards and one touchdown. The historical filter was intentionally broader — at least 10 catches and 175 yards — so we could identify genuinely similar starts without requiring an exact stat line.
Seven previous tight ends reached the mark.
After verifying position against nflverse season rosters, only seven tight-end seasons from 2015 through 2025 met both thresholds. Kincaid is shown alongside them for comparison but is not included in the historical hit rates.
| Player | Season | Rec | Yards | TD | Final PPR TE Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jared Cook | 2018 | 13 | 229 | 0 | TE5 |
| Dalton Kincaid | 2026 | 12 | 225 | 1 | TBD |
| Mark Andrews | 2019 | 16 | 220 | 2 | TE5 |
| Rob Gronkowski | 2015 | 12 | 207 | 4 | TE1 |
| Greg Olsen | 2016 | 12 | 195 | 1 | TE3 |
| Travis Kelce | 2019 | 10 | 195 | 1 | TE1 |
| Zach Ertz | 2017 | 13 | 190 | 0 | TE3 |
| Travis Kelce | 2021 | 13 | 185 | 3 | TE2 |
The historical finishes were remarkably consistent.
The sample is small, which matters. But there also isn’t a miss in it: all seven previous qualifiers finished among the top five PPR tight ends.
This is a descriptive historical comparison, not a projection that Kincaid is guaranteed to finish top five. Seven prior seasons are a small sample, and injuries, role changes and team context can alter the rest of a season.
At 200 yards, the historical group gets tiny.
Only three previous qualifying tight ends reached 200 receiving yards through Week 2: Jared Cook in 2018, Mark Andrews in 2019 and Rob Gronkowski in 2015. Their final finishes were TE5, TE5 and TE1.
| Player | Season | Week 1–2 Yards | Final PPR TE Rank |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jared Cook | 2018 | 229 | TE5 |
| Dalton Kincaid | 2026 | 225 | TBD |
| Mark Andrews | 2019 | 220 | TE5 |
| Rob Gronkowski | 2015 | 207 | TE1 |
At Kincaid’s exact yardage threshold of 225+, Jared Cook is the only previous qualifier in the 2015–2025 sample. He finished 2018 as the TE5.
This isn’t a touchdown-driven comparison.
The qualifying filter uses receptions and receiving yards, not fantasy points or touchdowns. Jared Cook and Zach Ertz both qualified despite scoring zero receiving touchdowns through two games. Kincaid has only one.
That matters because early touchdown totals can swing dramatically in tiny samples. The common feature here is substantial receiving production at a position where that level of volume is relatively uncommon.
A rare start with an unusually strong historical track record.
Two games cannot determine Kincaid’s final fantasy ranking. But the question here is narrower: what happened to tight ends who previously opened a season with comparable receiving production?
Since 2015, every roster-verified TE with at least 10 receptions and 175 receiving yards through two games finished the season TE5 or better in PPR scoring.
Kincaid is starting from historically rare territory.
Seven previous qualifiers. Seven top-five finishes. Five top-three finishes. And at 225 receiving yards, Kincaid sits above every historical qualifier except Jared Cook’s 229-yard start in 2018.
Want to dig deeper into receiving performance? Explore the latest player data in the EdgeLine Receiving Stats database.
How we built the comparison.
EdgeLine analyzed nflverse weekly player statistics for the 2015 through 2025 regular seasons. A qualifying start required at least 10 receptions and 175 receiving yards across Weeks 1 and 2.
Player position was verified against nflverse season rosters rather than relying solely on the position field in the weekly-stat dataset. This removed non-tight-end classification noise from the comparison.
Final TE rankings use standard PPR scoring across each full regular season: 1 point per reception, 0.1 points per rushing or receiving yard and 6 points per rushing or receiving touchdown, with applicable lost-fumble deductions in the dataset calculation.
Qualifier: TE with 10+ receptions and 175+ receiving yards through Weeks 1–2.
Position verification: nflverse season roster position.
Kincaid: His 2026 line is displayed for comparison and is not included in historical percentages.
Interpretation: This is a descriptive historical study. It does not guarantee Kincaid’s eventual 2026 fantasy finish.